As MotoGP braces for its biggest technical shake-up in years, one man who has already sampled the future is tipping Ducati to start the 2027 season with a clear edge over its rivals. Pol Espargaro, KTM’s test rider and DAZN analyst, has been heavily involved in developing the new 850cc prototypes, and he believes the Bologna factory’s success in World Superbike could translate into an immediate advantage when the new rules arrive.
MotoGP is set to switch from 1,000cc engines to 850cc machines next year, alongside a move from Michelin to Pirelli tyres. Aero restrictions will be tightened, and ride-height devices will be banned. The new bikes have been testing extensively, and Espargaro was at Mugello just before his recent stand-in appearance for Maverick Vinales at the British Grand Prix. That test, which all manufacturers except Yamaha attended, was dominated by Ducati’s test rider Nicolo Bulega, who also leads the World Superbike standings.
Espargaro’s assessment is blunt: "It’s easy to think that Ducati is gonna be insane. It’s gonna be fast from the first day because they have all the information from Superbike." He points out that the 850cc MotoGP bike is "a kind of superbike" – not far removed from what Ducati already races in WorldSBK, where it currently runs Pirelli tyres. That gives them a head start in understanding how to manage the tyres over a race distance and extract one-lap performance.
"They are gonna have some advantage, especially how to treat the tyres, what they need to do on the tyres to make them better in the races, or to perform better over one lap," Espargaro explained. "They have a lot of information that the other manufacturers don’t have – the others that are not in Superbike."
While Honda and Yamaha also compete in WorldSBK, their results this season have been far less impressive. Ducati has won all 24 races so far, with Bulega taking 23 and Iker Lecuona one, and has locked out the podium 18 times. Yamaha has not troubled the top three, and Honda’s best finish has been a single 10th place. That disparity in success – and the data that comes with it – could prove crucial when the new regulations come into force.
But Espargaro also warns that the transition will be challenging for current MotoGP riders. He was caught off guard by how difficult it was to adapt back to the 1,000cc KTM RC16 after his 850cc development work, describing himself as "feeling like a rookie" during the Silverstone weekend. He struggled to match the performance he had shown when standing in for Vinales the previous year.
In fact, Espargaro believes riders coming up from Moto2 – which already uses Pirelli tyres and less powerful bikes – will have a "big advantage" when they step up to MotoGP in 2027. The rookie crop is set to include Bulega, along with Moto2 graduates Izan Guevara, Senna Agius, David Alonso, and Dani Holgado, the latter of whom Espargaro mentors.
"You cannot believe how much the category will change next year and how many riders are going to struggle in this new category. It’s insane," Espargaro said. Despite describing the switch from 1,000cc to 850cc as "easy" compared to the reverse, he feels more at home with the Moto2 machinery. "I feel more ready to ride a Moto2 than MotoGP," he admitted. "I was with Holgado before the start of his second practice session, and I was talking to him, chatting – and it’s what I felt, I felt a little bit closer, seeing how they ride and looking at some data, to the Moto2 than to the MotoGP, the actual MotoGP."
The implications are significant. If Espargaro’s predictions hold, the 2027 season could see a reshuffling of the pecking order, with Ducati potentially running away at the front and experienced riders struggling to adapt. Meanwhile, Moto2 graduates might find themselves surprisingly competitive from the outset, as they are already accustomed to Pirelli tyres and less powerful bikes.
Of course, it’s still early days. The 850cc prototypes are in their infancy, and much can change before the first race of 2027. But Espargaro’s insider perspective adds weight to the notion that Ducati is well-positioned to lead the new era. As he put it, "Apart from the beginning of the year, that maybe some manufacturers are gonna start faster than the others, [but] when everyone more or less is gonna be on the same level, even maybe second year, the competition is gonna be super close. But it will take time."
For now, the rest of the grid will be watching Ducati’s pre-season testing closely, wondering if they can close the gap before the lights go out in 2027. If Espargaro’s assessment is accurate, the early advantage could be decisive – and ‘insane’ might be the perfect word for it.
